Catch 22: A “Checkmate” For The West

In light of the ongoing developments in Ukraine, I find it crucial to take a step back and review the geopolitical forces that generate the winds of diplomatic change across the face of the globe. Indeed, much has been said on the topic of “democracy” (or the lack thereof) within the blueprints of reform upon which the new Ukrainian administration came to power. Much has also been said of the possible course of development in the Ukrainian region, and the forces that shape the events from the shadow of Putin’s political power play. Both the former and the latter angles of analytical focus are, undoubtedly, crucial when it comes to understanding the situation in Ukraine. However, there is yet another important motion in global politics which an international observer cannot ignore. This crucial motion was identified and underscored by none other than Vladimir Putin himself: “the outcome in Ukraine” he maintained “will strictly be dependent on the action of the United States”.

Of course, Vladimir Putin can afford to appeal to American superiority because he knows the inescapable dilemma that is facing the West now; that is: push Russia too hard and risk its economic diversification toward China; push Russia too softly and risk losing control over a vital geopolitical swing state (and possibly other crucial Eastern European territories). For all intents and purposes, the situation resembles a “checkmate” from which any move from the West will result in a loss of the geopolitical battle. Undoubtedly, this superior advantage did not fall into Putin’s hands by luck or mere accident – for even the most strict critics of Putin are likely to admit that he has worked quite diligently on each and every move. However, I am not here to sing praise or admire the brilliance of Putin’s consistent performance in the international arena. Quite to the contrary, I believe it is time to analyze the options of the West and examine the nature of the “checkmate” with which we are presented. There may, after all, be an alternative to this seemingly inescapable situation.

To read my extended take on the dilemma, check out this article.